Apr 24, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners right fielder Jesse Winker (27) is hugged by third baseman Ty France (23, right) after hitting a walk-off RBI-single against the Kansas City Royals during the twelfth inning at T-Mobile Park. Seattle defeated Kansas City, 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
The Mariners vs Marlins odds favor Seattle as -120 moneyline favorites on Friday (April 29, 6:40 pm ET)
Seattle will send Matt Brash to the mound (1-1, 4.20 ERA), while Miami will counter with Elieser Hernandez (1-1, 5.87 ERA)
Read below for the Mariners vs Marlins odds, analysis and betting prediction
Only five teams in baseball had fewer wins than the Miami Marlins last season. They never won more than four games in a row, and only Pittsburgh scored fewer runs per night.
Fast forward a year, and Miami is turning heads in the National League. The Marlins are off to a 10-8 start, and will look to extend their winning streak to six games when they host the Seattle Mariners.
Mariners vs Marlins Odds
O 7.5 (+100)
U 7.5 (-120)
Odds as of April 28th at Caesars Sportsbook.
Despite their scorching hot play, Miami actually opened up as the underdog. Seattle is a -120 moneyline favorite, in a contest that features a total of 7.5 runs. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm ET at IoanDepot Park in Miami, FL, with 79 degree temperatures and a strong chance of showers in the forecast.
Seattle vs Miami Probable Pitchers
The Marlins, who are on pace to shatter their 2022 MLB win total, will give the ball to Elieser Hernandez. The 26-year-old has been the weak link of the Miami staff so far, sandwiching one great start between two bad outings.
Last time out, he was shelled by the defending champion Braves, yielding seven hits and five runs, including three homers. Keeping the ball in the yard has been a problem throughout Hernandez’s career, and this year has been no exception.
Elieser Hernandez now leads the majors with 6 home runs allowed
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) April 24, 2022
He’s surrendered six home runs in three starts, after allowing 13 in 10 outings last year. He owns a HR/9 rate over 2 during his five-year MLB tenure, which is over a full homer higher than the average mark this season.
Brash vs Hernandez Stats
Seattle meanwhile, will counter with rookie Matt Brash. After a strong MLB debut, Brash has struggled mightily with his control. He’s issued 10 walks over 9.2 innings in his last two starts, versus only eight strikeouts.
Fortunately for him he’s been bailed out by elite run production, as the Mariners have crossed the plate 20 times in those outings.
Matt Brash, 96mph Fastball (foul) and 84mph Breaking Ball (swinging K), Overlay
Sometimes this game isn’t fair. pic.twitter.com/CohkuJlH5W
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2022
When he has kept the ball across the plate he’s fared quite well. Opposing batters are batting just .212 against him, and he’s produced a 30.4% called+swinging strike percentage.
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Mariners vs Marlins Betting Analysis
Like Miami, Seattle has also exceeded expectations so far this season. They’re 11-8 overall, despite dropping back-to-back outings to the Rays. Prior to those losses they’d won nine of 11, and they rank top-10 in MLB in most pitching and hitting categories.
Tearing the cover off of the ball 🇫🇷
Ty France has been named American League Co-Player of the Week! #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/aXVTMA0C4f
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) April 25, 2022
The offense has been fuelled by Ty France, who’s on pace for a career season. He’s batting .365, with 5 home runs and 21 RBI. Those numbers have him ranked top-nine in baseball in all three categories, and have vaulted him into the top-13 of the AL MVP odds.
Miami on the other hand, checks in averaging only 3.8 runs per contest, and have been carried by its pitching. They boast a team-ERA of 3.12 ERA, and rank 11th in team-WHIP and eighth in home runs allowed. The problem is, they’ve accomplished all of that in spite of Hernandez’s performance.
Mariners vs Marlins Pick
Hernandez has allowed nearly half of the home runs his team’s surrendered, and things won’t get any easier against a very tough Mariners lineup. Seattle has belted 15 home runs over the past two weeks, boasting a .799 OPS.
Go off, Ty France! 🇫🇷
His fifth hit of the night is a home run!
(via @mlb) pic.twitter.com/ckNNTrQAWl
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 24, 2022
A quality Brash start would go a long way to helping the Mariners secure another victory, but Seattle backers need not worry if his command is off and he gets a quick hook. Seattle’s bullpen has the eighth lowest ERA and a top-four strand rate.
The Marlins have been a great story in the early going, but the combination of their underwhelming offense and Hernandez’s struggles make them a fade on Friday.
Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-120)