Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov Odds & Prediction

Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov Odds & Prediction

Shapovalov vs Nadal, ATP Italian Open

Mar 26, 2022; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Denis Shapovalov (CAN) serves against Lloyd Harris (RSA)(not pictured) in a second round men’s singles match in the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Spain’s Rafael Nadal is the -800 favorite to defeat Canada’s Denis Shapovalov in their ATP Italian Open Round of 16 match on Thursday, May 12
Shapovalov is 1-4 vs Nadal. He lost to him in the round of 16 in this event in 2021
All of the Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov odds and best bets are in the article below

About to find himself staring across the net at Rafael Nadal in the round of 16 at the ATP Italian Open, Denis Shapovalov must feel like he’s jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire. Oddsmakers certainly recognize this. They’ve set Nadal as an overwhelming -800 favorite in the Nadal vs Shapovalov odds. Shapovalov is 0-2 when facing Nadal on a clay surface.

The Canadian was fined $8,000 after hollering for the crowd booing him to “shut the (expletive) up” while arguing a line call during his first-round match with Lorenzo Sonego.

Facing the legendary Nadal in a clay court match, line calls will be the least of his worries. World #4 Nadal has won the ATP Italian Open 10 times. He is to this tournament what the Harlem Globetrotters are to the hardwood. Nadal just doesn’t lose.

At the outset of the event, bettors could access +300 odds on Nadal to win the ATP Italian Open. It’s rare to get that kind of betting line on him playing on clay.

Nadal vs Shapovalov ATP Italian Open Odds


Rafael Nadal
-5.5 (-110)
O 19.5 (-130)

Denis Shapovalov
+5.5 (+140)
U 19.5 (+100)

Odds as of May 11th at Caesars Sportsbook.

This match is set to get underway at approximately 1:00 pm ET on Thursday, May 12. Broadcasting all the action will be the Tennis Channel.

Rafael Nadal Betting Trends

Nadal’s pursuit of a record 11th ATP Italian Open title got off to an impressive start. He quickly dispatched John Isner 6-3, 6-1, easily overcoming the American with the powerful serve.

The #3 seed, Nadal took control of the first set by winning two break points. Isner had no answer for Nadal’s patented spinning groundstrokes.

Beginning his 800th week in the top 5 with a win 💪@RafaelNadal sees off Isner 6-3 6-1 to advance into the last 16 in Rome!#IBI22 pic.twitter.com/ZbxqVIk6Dc

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 11, 2022

Only his second tournament back from a six-week absence due to a rib injury, Nadal lost in the quarterfinals at Madrid. His victory assured that Nadal maintained his perfect record of never losing back-to-back matches on a clay court. He’s 44-0 in his career in that scenario.

Nadal improved to 69-7 all-time in the ATP Italian Open. He’s a 36-time Masters 1000 champion. For Nadal, the ATP Italian Open is a key lead-in to one of the biggest tennis events of the year, the French Open.

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Denis Shapovalov Betting Trends

After battling past Sonego in three sets in the opening round, Shapovalov found a little more smooth sailing in second-round action. He defeated Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-4, 7-6(7-5).

The #13 seed, the Canadian lefty was only required to face one break point in his match against the 2021 Indian Wells finalist. Not surprisingly, he saved it. Shapovalov is saving 70% of his break points this year.

Denis Shapovalov was NOT happy with the umpire or crowd at the Italian Open 😮 pic.twitter.com/oLiYAdhdrv

— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) May 11, 2022

The world #16, Shapoovalov won 85% of his first service points. He needed only one hour and 40 minutes to send Basilashvili packing.

It’s the first time Shapovalov has advanced beyond the round of 32 since reaching the semifinals in Dubai. That was in February.

Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov Odds & Prediction

In a case of history repeating itself, Nadal and Shapovalov also met in the round of 16 at last year’s ATP Italian Open. Nadal ultimately won that match but he’d was required to battle hard in order to do so. It ended 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(7-3).

Overall, Nadal owns a 4-1 edge in five meetings with Shapovalov. The Spaniard has won four in a row since falling to Shapovalov 3-6, 6-4 7-6(7-4) in the round of 16 at the 2019 Canadian Open.

Once is rare, twice is unheard of… @RafaelNadal has still never lost consecutive clay court matches in his career 😳@InteBNLdItalia #IBI22 pic.twitter.com/4OS5bY0A7j

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 11, 2022

One big difference between the two players – other than the 91-1 edge for Nadal in ATP titles won – is their stats when it comes to return games won. Nadal is capturing 30% of those games, while Shapovalov is winning only 17%.

Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov Stats

ATP Ranking

ATP Titles

ATP Final Appearances

W-L (2021)

Service Games Won

Return Games Won

Break Points Saved


Lately, Shapovalov is giving a better accounting of himself in matches against Nadal. In this year’s Australian Open men’s singles quarterfinals, Shapovalov lost 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 3-6 to Nadal.


🇨🇦Denis Shapovalov plays a great match and defeats 🇬🇪Nikoloz Basilashvilli 6-4, 7-6 to advance to the round of 16 in Rome.

Shapovalov only faced one break point the entire match.

Great performance 👏#IBI22 pic.twitter.com/8bYwnRzoM7

— Match Point Canada (@MatchPointCAN) May 10, 2022

Expect this one to be hard-fought as well. Nadal will overcome Shapovalov but don’t be surprised if the Canadian pushes him to a third set.

Pick: Rafael Nadal -800; Nadal 2-1 (+320)