Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday’s racing and has a sole selection at a big price at Dundalk…
Returning to a far more suitable and realistic test
Dundalk 18:00: Guild 1pt e/w 18/1
Luke Comer has three runners in this 1m4f handicap (one is a reserve) and while Dammit is the shortest priced and seemingly is the number one on jockey bookings, I think Guild’s chance may have been overlooked as a result of Chris Hayes riding Dammit instead of him.
Guild won off a 7lb lower mark over C&D under Hayes four starts ago when he was held up in last for much of the race and was still travelling well in a share of that position turning into the home straight. He found a gap in the wall of horses ahead of him with 1½ furlongs to go and then got the better of a battle with Nibiru and Ulster Blackwater.
Guild has since run well twice over C&D off today’s mark. He was drawn widest of all next time and was dropped out at the back of the field. He stayed on well on the inside rail in the home straight but could never get into a challenging position and finished fourth, 3½ lengths ahead of Dammit and four ahead of Fallen Forest who both reoppose today.
He was a bit awkwardly away from the stalls two starts ago when finishing fifth, only half a length behind Jake Peter who he faces on 3lb better terms today.
Guild was well beaten last time at this track on his return after 101 days off but that was over two miles in a conditions race against some far higher rated rivals so it’s easy to excuse that defeat.
Given the quality of his three performances over C&D in the autumn against some horses he faces again today, I think Guild’s chance has been completely overlooked by the market.
It may be that this is due to the jockey bookings or the wide draw but he showed three starts ago that he can run well from a very wide draw over this C&D and this race is likely to be at least fairly well run which can give him the opportunity to close late.
There is a slight concern about his slow starting antics being repeated but as long as it doesn’t become any worse that shouldn’t be too much of an issue and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.